Russia has long-standing political and economic interests in Venezuela, and recent events have put these at serious risk. The situation escalated dramatically after Donald Trump’s administration orchestrated a daring military operation, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the early hours of Saturday. Maduro now faces trial in New York on charges related to drugs and weapons, while Venezuela confronts an uncertain future.
Trump openly declared that Venezuela would be run by the US, inviting American oil companies to exploit the country’s vast reserves. Venezuela is home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at 303 billion barrels. This bold move has alarmed Moscow, as Russian companies have deep ties with Venezuela’s oil monopoly, PDVSA. Just last November, Roszarubezhneft secured a 15-year lease on two Venezuelan oil fields.
Maduro has also been a close ally of Vladimir Putin in Latin America, helping deter previous US interventions during Trump’s first term. In 2019, Russia even deployed military aircraft and troops to Venezuela amid a political crisis sparked by disputed elections.
Following the US raid, the Kremlin responded with predictable outrage, condemning it as “an act of armed aggression” and warning that Trump’s actions could backfire into a bloody conflict. Russian media highlighted the risks, comparing a potential US military campaign in Venezuela to the costly wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan. The dense jungles and local expertise in guerrilla warfare could make any intervention highly dangerous.
Experts also note that Russia and China are likely to defend their interests if flagrantly challenged, possibly through military or strategic means. Analysts predict that, should a military occupation occur, US forces would likely be confined to major cities and oil facilities, facing persistent resistance. Ultimately, the warning is clear: aggressive attempts to control Venezuela could end in failure and costly withdrawal.
The unfolding events highlight the complex geopolitics of Latin America, the risks of unilateral military action, and the importance of diplomacy over adventurism.
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