In a surprising development, US President Donald Trump has hinted at extending military action against drug traffickers from maritime to land-based targets, potentially putting Mexico in the spotlight.
Speaking to Sean Hannity on Fox News, Trump highlighted the success of recent naval operations against drug-smuggling vessels. “We’ve knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water,” he said, adding that the next phase could target cartels on land. Trump criticized Mexico’s handling of organized crime, claiming, “The cartels are running Mexico… They’re killing 250,000, 300,000 in our country every single year. The drugs are horrible, they’re devastating families.”
This comes after US naval efforts culminated in the recent capture and transfer of Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife to New York, signaling an assertive shift in Washington’s approach to regional security.
Despite the strong rhetoric from Washington, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to downplay any risk of US strikes on Mexican soil. Sheinbaum emphasized ongoing cooperation between the two nations and dismissed the possibility of an invasion, stating, “Organized crime is not taken care of with foreign military intervention.” She reaffirmed that discussions on US military action have occurred but called them a “non-starter,” highlighting a relationship based on mutual respect.
Analysts note that Trump’s warnings echo previous threats over tariffs and other economic measures. Mexican security analyst David Saucedo described these statements as a “negotiation weapon,” aimed at gaining political, diplomatic, and commercial leverage. Historically, Mexico has largely complied with US demands, increasing arrests, drug seizures, extraditions, and accepting more deportees in response to US pressure.
However, experts caution that actual military intervention could disrupt this cooperation. Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political analyst at Mexico’s Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), warned that direct action could undermine ongoing joint efforts against drug trafficking. Saucedo emphasized that rhetorical threats are far less costly than military operations and have proven effective in influencing Mexican policy.
With ongoing negotiations over USMCA revisions and trade tariffs, analysts expect continued US pressure. Former Mexican ambassador Arturo Sarukhán noted that Mexico must navigate carefully to balance trade, security, and diplomatic priorities, while also addressing organized crime and corruption.
While most observers consider actual US military action unlikely, analysts caution that nothing can be ruled out. Pérez Ricart observed, “The United States does not function under rational logic… all possibilities are open, including those unimaginable a year ago.”
Trump’s comments quickly drew attention online. Some users expressed support for his tough stance against drug trafficking, while others questioned the feasibility and potential political fallout. Reactions ranged from excitement over potential action to concerns about the broader implications for Mexico and US-Mexico relations.
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