Iran’s theocratic system is facing one of its most serious challenges in decades. Whether the current unrest ultimately succeeds or not remains uncertain, but many observers believe the regime is weaker than it has been at any point since the 1979 revolution.
Previous waves of protests in 2019 and again in 2022–23 were crushed through overwhelming force. Thousands were killed, and many more were imprisoned by Iran’s security apparatus, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Early reports from the current unrest suggest a similar pattern: hundreds killed, tens of thousands detained, and hospitals struggling to cope with casualties. The situation is fluid, and the final toll is likely to rise.
Despite this, there is a growing sense shared by activists and observers inside Iran that something may be different this time. The leadership appears strained, morale within parts of the security services is reportedly fractured, and there are indications of fear within the ruling elite. Some reports even suggest senior figures have prepared contingency plans to leave the country if the situation deteriorates further.
A major factor frequently cited in this discussion is the impact of sustained external pressure, particularly the economic strain caused by sanctions and military setbacks across the region. Supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump argue that his approach toward Iran marked a decisive break from earlier Western strategies. Rather than diplomatic containment, his administration emphasized sanctions, direct military action against Iranian assets, and strong backing of Israel’s efforts against Iran-aligned groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
From this perspective, Iran’s ability to project power abroad has been significantly weakened. Its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine especially through drone supplies has also drawn attention, with analysts noting that any internal collapse in Tehran would have global consequences well beyond the Middle East.
Iranian officials have responded with increasingly sharp rhetoric. Parliamentary leaders have warned of retaliation against U.S. and Israeli interests if foreign involvement escalates. However, such statements are widely seen as attempts to project strength at a moment of vulnerability.
It is important to note that any genuine political change in Iran would ultimately be driven from within. For years, opposition networks operating quietly inside the country have worked to undermine the regime through grassroots organizing, symbolic protest, and civil resistance. Groups aligned with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its political platform have long argued for a secular, democratic alternative.
Maryam Rajavi, the NCRI’s president-elect, has promoted a detailed vision for a future Iran that includes separation of religion and state, gender equality, free elections, and the abandonment of nuclear weapons ambitions. Supporters describe this platform as a coherent roadmap rather than a vague promise of change.
At the same time, divisions within the opposition remain a real concern. The son of Iran’s former Shah has attempted to position himself as a unifying figure, but this idea is unpopular among many protesters. Chants heard in earlier demonstrations rejecting both clerical rule and monarchy reflect a widespread desire to move forward rather than return to the past. Analysts also warn that regime-aligned disinformation efforts often amplify such divisions to weaken the protest movement.
Internationally, the U.S. has shifted toward more visible demonstrations of power. Warnings from Washington that further violence against protesters would have consequences signal a harder line than in previous years. Trump’s earlier decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and reimpose sanctions is often cited as a catalyst for Iran’s economic decline, which in turn has fueled public anger.
Some Western politicians believe the current regime cannot survive indefinitely under these pressures. Others caution that authoritarian systems can endure far longer than expected, especially when they retain loyal security forces.
What is clear is that the outcome will depend primarily on the resilience and courage of the Iranian people themselves. External pressure may shape the environment, but lasting change can only come from sustained internal momentum, credible leadership, and a clear vision for what follows. Whether this moment becomes a turning point or another tragic chapter remains to be seen.
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