The stunning US raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has raised alarms worldwide and some experts suggest Beijing could take notes. Dr. Clarke H. Summers, Assistant Professor of Government and Political Philosophy at Belmont Abbey College, warns that the operation in Caracas might provide China with a model for targeting Taiwan’s leadership amid growing cross-strait tensions.
The operation, called Absolute Resolve, took place in the early hours of January 3, 2026. Over 150 US aircraft, including F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, B-1B bombers, and advanced electronic warfare systems, quickly overwhelmed Venezuelan air defenses before dawn.
US special forces, primarily Delta Force commandos supported by the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (the “Night Stalkers”), stormed Maduro’s compound at Fort Tiuna and La Carlota Airbase. Reports indicate the team achieved total surprise, using blowtorches to breach steel-reinforced safe rooms and capturing Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, while they slept.
Maduro, who had been indicted in the US on narco-terrorism charges since March 2020, was immediately flown to New York aboard the USS Iwo Jima for arraignment. Both he and Flores have pleaded not guilty in Manhattan, yet the international implications of the raid continue to ripple.
Dr. Summers highlights that this “Maduro model” could offer Beijing a blueprint for coercive action against Taipei. Although China does not recognize Lai Ching-te as President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), it has not formally charged him with a crime. Summers warns that if Beijing were to indict Lai even on fabricated charges like international drug trafficking it could serve as a legal pretext to justify a forcible capture and extradition, framing it as law enforcement in line with the US example.
A critical distinction remains: while the US did not assert sovereignty over Venezuela, China already claims Taiwan as its own. This might embolden Beijing to act with even less justification if it believes a precise operation could succeed. “The PRC really doesn’t need a casus belli or excuse to act,” Dr. Summers notes. “The real question is whether such action has a reasonable chance of success.”
The raid also exposed weaknesses in Chinese-supplied military equipment. Venezuela’s JY-27 radars and BUK-M2E missile systems failed to detect or respond effectively to US stealth aircraft. Dr. Summers sees this as a low-cost learning opportunity for China, allowing the People’s Liberation Army to assess and address shortcomings in its own systems before attempting a high-stakes operation in the Taiwan Strait.
He adds that if the US extends its digital and information warfare capabilities to Taiwan, China would be incentivized to fix these shortfalls before launching any aggressive moves.
Operation Absolute Resolve followed months of escalating pressure. In December 2025, the US Navy’s Fourth Fleet imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, seizing ships like the Skipper and Marinera to cut off Maduro’s revenue. Despite this major deployment in the Western Hemisphere, Dr. Summers believes US deterrence in the Indo-Pacific remains strong, with two fleets and four aircraft carriers ready to protect Taiwan.
International reactions have been polarized. China and Russia condemned the strike as a “barbaric violation of sovereignty,” though Dr. Summers calls this criticism opportunistic, noting China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already undermined the rules-based order it claims to defend.
He predicts Beijing will likely pursue quiet diplomacy, attempting to convince the US that Taiwan is not worth a costly military confrontation. Dr. Summers also notes that former President Trump has previously indicated a willingness to negotiate with China on trade and technology issues, which Beijing could exploit to its advantage.
Back in Venezuela, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is overseeing a fragile transition, attempting to reset relations with Washington. The raid resulted in roughly 75–80 casualties, including 32 Cuban special forces members protecting Maduro. The US reported no fatalities among its forces, though seven were wounded, one seriously. Venezuela has declared seven days of mourning, with Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello warning the death toll could rise to 100.
With Xi Jinping maintaining a firm timeline for Taiwan’s “reunification,” the operation in Venezuela serves as both a warning and a potential operational playbook for Beijing. The shadow of a rapid, unilateral strike now looms over the Taiwan Strait, heightening global concern over what could happen next.
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