Speculation around UFO disclosure has surged again this time fueled not by government announcements, but by prediction markets.
According to Polymarket, an online platform where users wager on real-world outcomes, the odds that Donald Trump could order the release of classified files related to extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena have reportedly jumped from just 6% earlier this month to nearly 98%. Since December 6, millions of dollars have poured into bets predicting a last-minute disclosure before the end of the year.
Polymarket allows participants to bet on everything from elections to geopolitical events, and in this case, over $6 million has allegedly been staked on whether Trump will declassify any previously restricted UFO or alien-related materials. For the market to resolve “yes,” Trump would need to formally declassify at least some government files tied to extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial encounters before December 31.
Some UFO researchers believe the sudden spike in betting activity may reflect insider confidence rather than public speculation. British documentary filmmaker and UFO investigator Mark Christopher Lee has suggested that the movement could be driven by people close to Trump who expect action. He argues that long-time researchers in the field increasingly believe Trump wants to be remembered as the president who forced disclosure.
That belief isn’t entirely new. Trump has repeatedly hinted that he would be open to revealing what the government knows. In a past interview with Lex Fridman, he said he would “love” to make such information public and felt an obligation to do so if it existed.
At the same time, official institutions including the White House, NASA, and the U.S. military have consistently denied possessing evidence of alien contact, recovered spacecraft, or non-human remains. Public explanations for UFO sightings have generally pointed to sensor errors, foreign drones, or classified human technology.
Still, recent media projects are keeping the debate alive. The documentary The Age of Disclosure features former intelligence and defense officials who allege an decades-long cover-up involving advanced non-human technology. Adding to the controversy, retired Air Force major and whistleblower David Grusch has claimed that the U.S. government possesses alien biological material and that senior leaders, including Trump, were briefed on these programs.
According to unnamed insiders, Trump has intensified his interest in the issue since the 2024 election and reportedly believes Americans deserve transparency on the subject if such information truly exists.
Whether this betting frenzy reflects genuine inside knowledge or just another round of UFO speculation remains unclear. What is clear is that prediction markets, documentaries, and whistleblower claims are once again pushing the alien disclosure debate into the public spotlight right as the year comes to a close.
If nothing else, it raises a familiar question: if the truth is really out there, would any president actually be allowed to reveal it?
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